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If there’s one thing everybody knows about gambling it’s that the house always wins. And while it is true that casinos always make a profit, there are a number of ways to cheat the system – some of which are actually perfectly legal.
Half a century ago, mathematician Edward Thorp published a groundbreaking book outlining how a player could use “card counting” to get an advantage in the game Blackjack by keeping track of the cards left in a deck. Ever since, casinos have been trying to eradicate card counting while card counters are getting increasingly skilled at not getting caught. So is it possible to outplay casinos today? And what will it be like in the future?
Casinos are businesses and operate by building in a margin – often referred to as the house edge. If you play roulette and bet on a single number you will be paid at odds of 35-1 when the true odds are 36-1 in Europe and 37-1 in the US. The fact that you are receiving less than the true odds is the house edge and explains why casinos make money in the long term. Of course, some people have to win, otherwise casinos would cease to exist.
What casinos don’t like are “advantage players” – people seeking to have an edge over the house. Sometimes this involves cheating and/or illegal activities ranging from past posting (making a bet after the time when no more bets are to be taken) to collaborating at the poker table and using a computer to help make decisions.
Card counting, however, is legal. In Blackjack, the aim of the player is to achieve a hand of cards whose points add up nearer to 21 than the dealer’s hand, but without exceeding 21. Many hands are played from the same deck of cards, so what happens in one hand will influence what happens in future hands. As an example, if a ten has been played from the pack then it cannot appear in the next hand. This is different from other games, such as roulette, where the outcome of one spin has no effect on the next spin.
Card counting is based on the fact that a large proportion of high cards (such as tens, jacks, queens and kings, which are all worth ten points) left in the unplayed deck statistically improves the player’s chances. This is because a player can decide not to draw a new card to a hand such as 16, but the casino is forced to, as it follows strict rules. If there are a high proportion of high cards left in the unplayed deck of cards, the dealer has more chance of busting (going over 21). This can be combined with “basic strategy” – developed from computer simulations of millions of blackjack hands – which tells the player the best action to take for each possible card combination.
Combining card counting and basic strategy can help a player convert the (long term) house edge from 2.7%, in favour of the casino, to about a 1% advantage to the player. Of course, once you have this advantage you can increase your bet.
To give a simple example, if you were playing basic strategy and were dealt a ten and a six, and the dealer had a three showing (one of the dealers cards is visible to the player), you would stand (not take another card) as you hope that the dealer would draw a ten and bust. If you were card counting, and you knew that more low cards had been played, you might decide to increase your stake at this point.
Casinos have introduced a number of measures to deter card counting. These include spotting those doing it and simply banning them from playing, or even from entering the casino. Another approach is to increase the number of decks from one to (typically) six, or even eight. Some casinos also shuffle the cards after only about 75% have been played or shuffle them constantly using automatic shufflers.
You might wonder why casinos don’t simply withdraw blackjack. Well, it remains a popular game, and one that is still profitable. There are also many would-be card counters who are not actually that good at it, and they provide income to the casinos.
Many blackjack players have fought back against such measures, arguing that casinos should allow gamblers to use skill when playing the game. As a card counter operating on their own is relatively easy to spot (intense concentration, increasing bets and so on), a team of students from MIT showed it could successfully be done in teams. The idea is that somebody else counts the cards – they may not even be sitting at the table. When the count reaches an agreed value, they signal to another player, who joins the table to start betting. This is a lot more difficult to detect but casinos may stop players joining the game until after a shuffle to combat such a strategy.
Other players have used shuffle tracking, where blocks of cards are tracked so that you have some idea when they will appear. If you are given the option to cut the pack, you try and cut the pack near where you think the block of cards you are tracking is so that you can bet accordingly. A variant on this is to track aces as, if you know when one is likely to appear, you have a distinct advantage over the casino.
It’s been 50 years since Thorp’s book, and it is unlikely that the war of wills between blackjack players and casinos will end any time soon. Some of our work has investigated how artificial neural networks (simple models of the human brain) could help evolve blackjack strategies. This was done by playing thousands of blackjack hands and the computer learning what to do in any given situation, getting better each time. There is a lot of scope to see if automated computer programs could learn even more sophisticated strategies.
Almost every system loses for the same fundamental reasons. This page explains how to win at roulette: what works, and why.
This page explains the plain facts about roulette including how you can and cannot beat roulette, although much more detailed information is at https://www.roulettephysics.com/how-to-win-at-roulette/. These are the same facts recognized by professional casino staff who are trained to detect professional players. Most people will tell you roulette is totally random and can’t be beaten. But the fact is people beat roulette every day, although you rarely hear about it. To understand how to win at roulette, you must understand what roulette actually is. Software roulette games with computer animations are basically slot machines, not roulette. Online casinos rely on players to be fooled by computer animations.
The only real roulette consists of a physical wheel and ball. In real roulette, the ball and wheel spin, then the ball falls and bounces around before finally coming to rest in a pocket. Real physics is involved, and as such where the ball will fall can be predicted to some degree.
If you treat a slot machine like roulette, you will lose. There are online roulette casinos that allow you to play against real wheels, and this is the only online roulette you can beat. For 10 years I have offered a $100,000 cash prize to anyone who has a system that can beat 1,000,000 RNG (random number generator) spins. Everyone who has tried has failed.
Less than 1% of players use a system that has even a remote chance of winning in the long-term
Most players are unable to win consistently because the casino offers unfair payouts for wins, and their strategy doesn’t address this issue. Using a single number as an example, on the European wheel, there are 37 pockets. But instead of a fair payout, the casino pays you 35 to 1. This means if you bet on a single number for 37 spins, on average you can expect to win once. On that one win, you will get 35 units, plus the unit you bet. This will leave you with 36 units. If the payout was FAIR, you would have ended up with 37 units. Once you understand this, you see even when you win, you still actually lose. This situation of “unfair payouts” is called the “house edge”.
There is more to it which is explained below, but ultimately most systems eventually lose because the system does not increase the accuracy of predictions. The best page that explains how you can win roulette is here and this page explains the best roulette strategy for online casinos.
Collect data about previous spins for the automated software to analyze
Do previous spins affect future spins? This is a tricky question. Most professionals would outright tell you NO. But the fact is when a ball lands on one number, and the ball is spun again, the previous winning number IS connected, but the spins are still two different events and they do not exactly “affect” each other. Consider the following two scenarios. We assume the wheel is physically perfect:
Scenario 1: The ball lands on 32 (spin 1). The dealer then spins the wheel again, and again the ball lands on 32 (spin 2).
Scenario 2: The ball lands on 15 (spin 1). Now the wheel and ball are now respun with exactly the same force, and the ball lands on 15 again (spin 2).
My point of the above example is in both scenarios, we had exactly the same ball and wheel speed. So what was different about each scenario? The previous winning number was different, and this meant the next winning number was different.
So do previous spins affect future spins? Well, not exactly, but they are linked, although this applies ONLY on real wheels where there is a physical wheel and ball. If it were software roulette (RNG), the actual winning number is based on random number generators, which have nothing to do with any real wheel and ball, or physics (in the traditional sense), so previous spins have no connection at all to future spins.
To understand basic advice and tips for winning roulette, see https://www.roulettephysics.com/best-roulette-tips/ and also learn the rules of roulette.
There are many “fallacies” players use to develop systems. Below are the most common ones, and WHY they don’t work:
On the roulette wheel, nothing is ever “due” to happen. Even after 10 reds in a row, the odds of black spinning are still less than 50/50. If you don’t believe me, do through testing. One way to do this is use an Excel chart to create millions of results with either R (red) or B (black). Even better, use software such as Roulette Xtreme although you’d need to know how to code it. You could probably find people to code for you free on roulette forums.
Now assuming you are doing it manually, check to see various points where there are 10 reds in a row, then each time this happens, see how many times red and black are next. You will need the situation of 10 reds in a row to happen realistically thousands of times to get a realistic idea of the results. What you will find is the odds of black spinning next are EXACTLY the same, whether there was one red, 10 reds or whatever. Nothing changes.
However, many systems are based on the principle of waiting for something to not happen, then betting based on the concept of it being “due”. In this sense, previous spins have nothing even vaguely to do with future spins.
Let’s say over 10,000 spins, 45% are black, and 55% are red. Would you bet black thinking the “balance” will eventually occur? If you think this, you haven’t learned what I’ve written above. The odds are no different no matter what present “imbalance” of red/black there is. Don’t believe me? Test it thoroughly for yourself, as countless others have before you.
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If you increase the bet size to cover losses, all you are doing is creating the opportunity to either get very lucky and win big, or blow your entire bankroll in spectacular fashion. You need to keep in mind no matter what has happened in previous spins, the odds of an event taking place are still the same. I’ll give an example:
You wait for 10 reds in a row, then bet on black thinking it is due. But red spins again. You then double up your bet, but lose again. This happens again and again until you reach the maximum bet at the table, then even if you win, it makes no difference and why? Because the payouts are unfair, so when when you win, you still actually lose.
Even if there were no table betting limits at all, the situation would be no different. But the reason casinos have betting limits is because someone could get very lucky, and bankrupt them with huge winning bets.
Einstein once said the only way to beat a roulette table is to steal money when the croupier wasn’t looking. Many people interpret this as him saying you cannot win at roulette. What he said was about the TABLE, not the game of roulette. Einstein said you cannot beat the table, and he is right. This is because the table is a scattered representation of the wheel, and it is scattered and “randomized” for good reason: you cannot predict the exact number where the ball will land, but you can realistically predict the general area on the wheel the ball will land – not with perfect accuracy, but enough to overcome the issue of the unfair payouts.
Putting this into perspective, consider two scenarios:
Player 1 is betting reds only. Reds are every second pocket. There is no way this player can determine where the ball will land within the accuracy of 1 pocket. Because the payouts are unfair, this player is guaranteed to eventually lose their bankroll.
Player 2 can skillfully observe the ball when it is at a slow speed, and based on the wheel position when the ball has approximately 6 or so seconds before falling, he/she can determine where the ball is more likely to land. Of course they aren’t god so they can’t be 100% accurate, but they achieve an accuracy better than completely random. And since the house edge is only around 2.5% (the payouts are only marginally unfair), the slight accuracy he/she achieves is enough to win consistently, even over tens of millions of spins (assuming they had that kind of time). Like the casino usually takes your money with a small house edge, this player will slowly but surely profit.
To summarize, the ONLY way you can beat roulette consistently is by increasing the accuracy of predictions. UNLESS YOUR METHOD DOES THIS, YOU EVENTUAL LOSS IS A SCIENTIFIC AND MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY.
Roulette has nothing to do with the betting table. The winning number is determined by a wheel and ball. And now that you know the only way to beat roulette consistently is by increasing the accuracy, the question is: HOW do you increase the accuracy of predictions?
This is not as hard as you’d think. Keep in mind the house edge (unfair payouts) are only minor, so you only need relatively minor accuracy to overcome it and win consistently. When blackjack card counting was all the rage, the best players were only getting 2-3% edges, whereas with roulette, you can literally achieve over an 80% edge. So you can understand why for professional casino players who know best, roulette is the best choice. Beating roulette may be trickier than blackjack, but when you do it right, the edge is far, far greater. For myself personally, I know I’d rather not spend days and days at the blackjack table for a tiny edge, when it is quicker and more profitable at the roulette wheel when done right.
Ok now we are aware that roulette is all about a wheel and ball, and we are aware of the unfair payouts and the need to increase accuracy of predictions. So HOW do we increase the accuracy of predictions? In other words, how do you determine where a little ball will fall? Voodoo perhaps? Betting progression? Think about the most logical approach before continuing… What would Einstein, a physicist look at? What rules govern the behavior of a little ball? Physics, of course.
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If you’re new to roulette, you’d probably think predicting where the ball will land with any kind of accuracy is impossible. After all, the ball bounces all over the place, right? Truth is there are actually countless ways to achieve predictions that not only overcome the house edge, they obliterate it.
You need to understand in reality it is much more difficult for a roulette wheel developer to create a wheel that produces truly unpredictable spins than it is for a knowledgable player to predict spins with enough accuracy to overcome the house edge. There are wheels that produce spins that are quite difficult to predict, but by no means impossible – and with such wheels, or any wheel, it is almost impossible for casinos to maintain the wheel in a state whereby spins are at a maximum of unpredictability. So while you may initially think spins are unpredictable, there are actually many legitimate methods to predict roulette spins, and beat roulette consistently.
1. Roulette Computers (best) Electronic devices that are legal in most jurisdictions. They take timings of the wheel and ball to predict where the ball is most likely to land. The player then makes a late bet before no more bets is called. Below is a video of one of my roulette computers being publicly demonstrated:
2. Visual Ballistics: This is basically what a roulette computer does, but by using your eyesight. It is less effective than computers, but legal everywhere. Visual ballistic techniques form part of the techniques I teach. See below for a free tutorial video that explains the basics of visual ballistics:
3. Bias Analysis: exploiting physical imperfections of wheels. Yes you may have heard biased wheels don’t exist today. The truth of the matter is EVERY wheel is imperfect to some degree, and every wheel has at least some bias. But rarely is this bias alone strong enough to overcome the house edge. As part of the course I offer, you learn how to conduct a proper analysis for wheel bias. See the free bias analysis course.
Once these methods were secret, casinos didn’t believe roulette could be beaten, and only those that used them knew about them. Now they are somewhat common knowledge to professional players and casinos alike, and you’ll occasionally see TV documentaries about players having won millions. While there are actually quite a few other methods, they are today’s secrets, and tomorrows TV documentaries.
If you think you can’t possibly predict spins, with enough accuracy to overcome the house edge, with bets BEFORE the ball is even released and on modern wheels the “experts” consider unbeatable, you are very wrong – and you will know this perhaps when it is too late to take advantage of the knowledge. Casinos have a growing awareness of the newest techniques to beat roulette, but they are still largely ignorant. Many are starting to implement procedures (countermeasures) that make application of the latest techniques more difficult. However, I still have never found a wheel I’d consider impossible to beat. In my experience, every wheel is beatable one way or another (even without electronics), but not every wheel is “practical” to beat. A wheel may be “impractical” to beat for varied reasons, such as it only spinning once every 5 minutes which is simply too infrequent.
In conclusion, don’t bother with outside betting. If you understood that I’ve written, you’d understand why outside betting is suicide. Don’t bother with betting progression. The only way to beat roulette is by understanding the physics of the roulette wheel. This will enable you to determine what patterns are likely to form, how to represent such patterns in a practical form, and how to apply the knowledge. If you’d like to know more about my methods, start by reading my site, and/or purchase the book “Living Energies” by Callum Coats – this and diligence will lead you to types of patterns that are exhibited on every wheel, and the casinos appear to know absolutely nothing about them.
If the above is too much information for you, the below is simpler:
1. No matter what the previous spins were, they do not at all change the odds of one or another number spinning next.
2. As per #1 above, no matter how you select where to bet, looking at previous spins in any way does not determine the future (with the exception of real wheels and understanding physics)
3. If you increase bet size after losses, combine points #1 and #2, and you’ll understand all you’re doing is just increasing the amount you’ll either win or lose on the next spin.
These facts are IRREFUTABLE. If you understand them, you will understand why almost every system fails.
For example, let’s say you waited until over 100 spins, there were 80 reds and only 20 blacks. You may think there are bound to be more blacks soon, so you bet on black. But you are wrong. The odds of black spinning next are exactly the same as they’ve always been, so you are still going to lose.
Another example: you see 10 reds in a row, and bet on black thinking it is due. But the odds of black spinning next has not and never will change. Red spins again and again, and you keep doubling your bet. Each time you double your bet, you are NOT increasing your chances of winning – you are increasing the amount you are likely to lose. What will happen is you will either get lucky and win, or blow your bankroll. This may give you some good short term profits, but if you continue to do it, you will absolutely definitely eventually deplete your bankroll. It might happen the first few spins, or you might get lucky and end up profiting after about 100 spins.
I have seen RNG systems win after 10,000 spins, but does this mean they are legitimate long term winners? No! It just means that over those 10,000 spins, the system has been very lucky. Try it over a different 10,000 spins and chances are the results will be quite different. Even constantly betting red alone with no system at all can give you a profit over 10,000 spins.
Don’t try to correlate spins to each other unless you are dealing with a real wheel. If you ARE dealing with a real wheel, understand the relationships between spin has nothing to do with anything being “due” – it has to do with the physics of the wheel. You simply cannot beat roulette when there is no real wheel and ball involved. Believe me casinos aren’t concerned about losing money from slot machines, and that’s what RNG software roulette is. But casinos certainly are concerned about losing money from players on real roulette wheels.
Understand this doesn’t mean you cant beat online roulette, because many casinos allow you to play against real physical wheels via webcam. You can use the free system I provide at such online casinos, but I only specify which ones to my players. Otherwise you can simply do your own research to find them.